Fathom launch on track for Q4 2027. Validation Testing 90% complete (+ more updates from Q3 2026 earnings call)

[paneubert]

That is the most stupid bet ever

I will bet that the SUN will rise in the east.

I won't take that bet. Sorry.

 

[Maverstang]

It's all about the execution/suppliers software. If you want one of the first Fathoms, expect delivery to you in the first quarter of 2028, and be prepared for a ton of OTAs. The OTA process for Fathom will be light years better than the current Ford OTA process.

There is no doubt there will be tons of software updates, including new features, fixes based on field inputs, plus the inherent software engineering habit of never finishing anything on time because they don’t have to with OTA.

But in this case the hardware is a particular challenge since the UEV is based on an all new design with all new structural processes and all new electrical architectures, both traction and low voltage. Not one bolt is shared with any other vehicle.

Obviously there is a tremendous effort underway on validation of the structural components, processes and components, but it does represent a higher risk than any other conventional Ford vehicle. Farley understands this problem (manifested in ever increasing warranty costs at Ford) which is why there now is such a push on pre-launch validation and testing to failure. Have they solved this problem for the UEV? - Don’t know yet, therefore the year 1 ownership risk remains and you must determine your tolerance for that risk.

 

[commadorebob]

You can sell a vehicle as a MY28 and build it starting January 1st 2027.

I'm aware. But most of their other models won't be at MY28 until late Q3 and Q4. So, it can slot right in.

 

[dalola]

Will thrFathom have aluminum body panels like theF150?

It will likely be a mix of aluminum & steel panels, to manage cost. I would anticipate aluminum hood & fenders, and steel cab & bed.

 

[atomguy245]

Farley‘s Q4 launch comment (previously 2H27) reaffirms the Fathom really is a 2028 story. Although the launch happens in Q4 (as late as December) few people will have one by the end of next year. Full ramp up will happen in Q1 2028.

And if it is as popular as the Maverick launch, some of us here may not get one until 2029. I was rolled over to 2023 (at the same price), which turned out to be a good thing since the 22 hybrid had a few manufacturing fumbles which weren’t fixed until 2023.

Obviously we are looking forward to the reveal (Feb/Mar?) and initial orders (June?), but in the meantime I will be hitting the snooze button.

I ordered my Maverick in the summer of 2021 and didn't get it until fall 2022. 13 months

 

[markboris]

I ordered my Maverick in the summer of 2021 and didn't get it until fall 2022. 13 months

Have you beat! I ordered my 2016 Focus RS in September 2015 and it was delivered December 2016. 15 months!

 

[Lytning]

Confidence in software and OTA updates would be much higher if Ford actually demonstrated capability on their existing BEV's. The great majority of OTA updates for my Lightning truck fail to ever install. And, one of them "bricked" my truck. It had to be towed to the dealership, and they found over 20 updates which had never installed. Don't drink the Kool-Aid.

 

[rekamyenom]

I'm so ready for this truck! I already sold the EV that it will replace. This way we can just write a check for the Fathom. Super excited. Gave up on the Slate. We need the 4 Doors.

 

[Snakebitten]

Confidence in software and OTA updates would be much higher if Ford actually demonstrated capability on their existing BEV's. The great majority of OTA updates for my Lightning truck fail to ever install. And, one of them "bricked" my truck. It had to be towed to the dealership, and they found over 20 updates which had never installed. Don't drink the Kool-Aid.

In all fairness, you can't compare the architecture, or "the team" behind the software with Ford's first attempt at FNV vehicles. I have, and have had, multiple vehicles on Ford's current architecture and so I agree that it has been painful at times. But even FNV 1.0 has improved and I imagine Ford has learned a lot. Certainly what DIDN'T work.

The UEV platform would be apples/bananas to the current products Ford delivers, regarding both software delivery, as well as the number of suppliers involved in coordinating compatability issues with firmware/hardware. It might not be quite as vertical as Tesla, but it's a far cry from anything like my 2 Powerboost, Mach-E, Lightning, or Maverick. (Family fleet)

 

[mark]

You can sell a vehicle as a MY28 and build it starting January 1st 2027.

Thats how you reach 100,000 sales.

 

[DeluxeStang]

>> This will require high-level execution by our team to deliver on time and at cost

I like this statement. It tells me that the Ford team sees all the zillion obstacles, is willing to say that publicly, and is focused on solving the problems. I way prefer that over management not being told about the obstacles, and everyone gets blindsided one month from scheduled on sale date.

>> We've built our first production line vehicles

I also love that Ford has the line up and running (at least partly) a year in advance of production. And that they're taking that year to validate the product, tune the line and all the processes for efficiency, quality, and cost.

It's all good. Can't wait to see this vehicle in Q1. I'm still thinking Jan at CES or at one of the major Q1 auto shows (just a wild guess).

I'm thinking Detroit in January. Ford's home turf, and the first major auto show of the year. But I could see Ford doing Detroit and CES to appeal to multiple crowds and get maximum exposure.

If I designed an awesome affordable EV, that's what I would do, get it in front of as many interested buyers as possible.

 

[atomguy245]

Confidence in software and OTA updates would be much higher if Ford actually demonstrated capability on their existing BEV's. The great majority of OTA updates for my Lightning truck fail to ever install. And, one of them "bricked" my truck. It had to be towed to the dealership, and they found over 20 updates which had never installed. Don't drink the Kool-Aid.

Hopefully it'll work out better with Ford designing the whole thing in house instead of meshing various supplier designed systems together.

 

[mark]

Given all the reveals ( lack there of) to date, my wife decided this EV should be called the Phantom.

 

[onuiebvbevnulib]

I ordered my Maverick in the summer of 2021 and didn't get it until fall 2022. 13 months

I Ordered my MY2022 Maverick Hybrid on 8/23/21. it was Scheduled on 9/16/21, Built on 11/29/21, Shipped 11/30/21 and Delivered 12/13/21.

That was less than 4 months from ordering to delivery.