Ford's $30K Fathom Truck Could Be Killed by Ban on CATL Battery Deal

[onuiebvbevnulib]

Ford Fathom’s future if US kills Chinese battery licensing deal

Video queued to start of discussion:

 

[atomguy245]

Sean Duffy is confused. But let's say the administration gets a bee in its bonnet about this. Ford already said that the UEP can accommodate different battery chemistries, so Ford might have to pivot to a different battery for the truck, which might affect the pricing.

 

[commadorebob]

There are multiple levels of "if" with this one. I'm sure these podcasters know the battery market, but how Ford will react is a secret to Ford. I highly doubt these guys know something that Ford didn't already know.

 

[onuiebvbevnulib]

Sean Duffy is confused. But let's say the administration gets a bee in its bonnet about this. Ford already said that the UEP can accommodate different battery chemistries, so Ford might have to pivot to a different battery for the truck, which might affect the pricing.

Those different battery chemistries are years down the road for actual production.

The Fathom is estimated to cost $38,000 or more if they had to switch to NCM batteries:

Video queued to discussion on ramifications (cost & delays) if Ford was banned from using LFP batteries:

 

[onuiebvbevnulib]

As a follow up on alternate battery chemistries LMR (Manganese-Rich Lithium) batteries being used by Ford the date quoted is around 2030.

LMR (lithium manganese-rich) battery-powered production vehicles will launch in 2028, with pre-production kicking off slightly earlier.

Production and Timeline Details

• Pre-Production (Late 2027): LG Energy Solution and its partners plan to start initial pre-production and cell testing for LMR prismatic cells.
• Commercial Production (2028): Full-scale manufacturing is scheduled to begin in 2028, largely driven by General Motors and LG Energy Solution's Ultium Cells joint venture.
• Recent Technical Progress: A breakthrough by researchers published in Nature Communications solved major gas-generation and voltage-decay issues by adjusting upper and lower voltage limits, keeping LMR development on schedule for its 2028 debut.
• Alternative Timelines: While GM aims for 2028, other competitors like Ford are not expected to adopt LMR battery tech in their vehicle lineups until around 2030.

Key Benefits of LMR

• Lower Cost: They swap out expensive nickel and eliminate cobalt entirely, relying instead on more abundant and affordable manganese.
• High Energy Density: They offer a range comparable to high-nickel batteries (targeting 400+ miles) while staying close to the affordability of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells.

Ford waiting until 2030 seems like a good strategy as even with the so called break though it looks like further work needs to be done:

Specifically, LMR cells use oxygen oxidation and reduction to store electricity. However, in current LMR cells, oxygen oxidized during charging is not properly reduced during discharging. This leads to gas accumulation and cell swelling, eventually leading to structural damage and fire. The good news is that LGES and a research team at Seoul National University have found a way to prevent this from happening.

The research team narrowed the issue to voltage levels. After lowering the upper limit from 4.6 volts to 4.3 volts, the oxygen reduction rate jumped from 86% to 97%. The lower limit was also expanded from 3.0 to 2.0 volts, helping restore oxygen to its original state. These steps allowed a large class cell (40 Ah) to maintain 92.2% of its initial energy even after 883 charge and discharge cycles.

LMR Batteries One Step Closer to Production, As LGES Solves Critical Gas-Generation Problem

Losing 7.8% of capacity in only 883 charge/discharge cycles seems like alot. Also it looks like you need to discharge the battery from 4.3 volts to 2 volts for it work properly. Lowering the voltage will also lower the capacity.

First Vehicles to Use LMR Batteries:

Chevrolet Silverado EV: GM's full-size electric pickup is slated to use the new chemistry to target a 400-mile range at a lower cost.

Cadillac Escalade

 

[atomguy245]

Those different battery chemistries are years down the road for actual production.

The Fathom is estimated to cost $38,000 or more if they had to switch to NMC batteries:

Video queued to discussion on ramifications (cost & delays) if Ford was banned from using LFP batteries:

Ford already uses LFP batteries in the Mach E. Where do those come from? Also, I thought I had read that the long range Fathom was using a different chemistry battery

 

[mark]

There is an improved LFP battery that is reportedly included in their CATL contract. It has a zinc magesium catalyst which increases power density and lowers charging time. I read this but could not get it confirmed by Riley. It would not require process capital to put this in Michigan, it’s a formulation change. What they actually do for the higher range 300 mile range has not been disclosed.

 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

I imagine Ford has the resources to lobby the feds against any ban if they feel the need.

 

[onuiebvbevnulib]

There is an improved LFP battery that is reportedly included in their CATL contract. It has a zinc magesium catalyst which increases power density and lowers charging time. I read this but could not get it confirmed by Riley. It would not require process capital to put this in Michigan, it’s a formulation change. What they actually do for the higher range 300 mile range has not been disclosed.

The technology you are referring to is CATL's M3P battery.

While it is frequently grouped or contracted alongside lithium iron phosphate (LFP) offerings due to its structural similarities, it is technically an advanced variation of lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) chemistry.

Key Technical Aspects

• The "Catalyst" Substitution: CATL's M3P technology modifies the standard LFP olivine lattice structure by replacing a portion of the iron. It introduces a proprietary combination of zinc, magnesium, and aluminum to stabilize the lattice structure and accelerate ion movement.
• Energy Density: By substituting the elements in this manner, the M3P chemistry achieves an energy density of roughly 210 Wh/kg. This represents about a 15% to 20% increase over standard LFP cells, effectively matching the energy density of lower-tier nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cells while keeping costs low.
• Contract/Application: The most notable report of an embedded contract for this chemistry involves Tesla. CATL has long supplied LFP cells for base-tier vehicles like the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, and the enhanced energy density of the M3P pack allows vehicles of a similar footprint to safely expand their driving range toward 700 km without expanding the battery pack's physical size

 

[mark]

Yes, read more about it last night. Got the same response when I did an inquiry. it makes more sense than any other option to get to 300 miles. Still unconfirmed by Ford.

 

[ScottyC]

All Ford needs to do is build a "Trump Edition" Lincoln and everything will be fine...

 

[onuiebvbevnulib]

Here is a link to a Shifting Gears article on how this issue unfolded and how Ford was blindsided by the letter:

White House whiplash: Stunned Ford execs learn of harsh Sean Duffy letter through media

I am only posting the actual timeline of the letter's release here. You can read the entire article from the link above:

How the Duffy attack unfolded

Here’s what happened:

• The U.S. Department of Transportation provided a copy of the letter to select members of the press on Tuesday under embargo. Those reporters agreed not to release anything until after a specific time provided. Different media outlets released stories at different times in the afternoon, evening and then on Wednesday.
• The letter, signed by Sean Duffy, was addressed to Ford CEO Jim Farley at the corporate headquarters in Dearborn, and dated Friday, Sept. 3, 2026. The (DOT) website indicates the document was uploaded on Tuesday, September 8.
• A DOT briefing post on Tuesday said Duffy “today warned Ford Motor Company against its embrace of Chinese technology and manufacturing due to national security concerns.” He expressed concern about “skilled American workers who suffer” under Ford policies. (The company employs the most hourly UAW members in the auto industry.)
• The government website says, “Trump’s Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy Urges Ford to Cut Ties to China and Prioritize Manufacturing in America”
• Ford learned of the letter from reporters on deadline.
• Ford called around Washington, D.C., on Tuesday and Wednesday, trying to figure out what instigated the action and why it came from Duffy.